I delivered my 10,000th leaflet across the new
Reading West & Mid Berkshire constituency last weekend (7th April_. From doing this its
already clear that voters must take great care with what the parties are
saying. Whether its Labour delivering leaflets saying how they are the only ones
that can win, even though their base out of Reading is just 30% of the new
constituency, or the Lib Dems doing the opposite based on Local election
results in Mid Berkshire. Voters need to treat the content in a leaflet or
canvassing on the door with care. The labour leaflet even mentioned that all
polling shows its neck and neck between them and the Conservatives. But based
on what polling? They don’t say.
What do I base this statement on! I have had nigh on 400
conversations with Voters as I have been delivering. So that’s my polling so
far. The almost universal message is one of not knowing which way to vote and
being depressed with the state of Politics. Many people simply saying they are
not going to vote because “it makes no difference; all politicians are the
same”. Not one person said they were voting Labour! or Lib Dem or Green for
that matter. It’s way too early for most people to have decided.
So, how can we trust parties that start campaigning by
twisting things? As a demonstration, I’ll use the same techniques used by
parties to show how an independent has just as good a chance, if not better, of
being elected in the new constituency.
Let’s start with the most recent byelection result from
Rochdale. Independents polled 24.5% of the vote and the largest independent got
21%. Now let’s look at Politico and the poll of polls as of 3rd
April.
It says Labour 44%, Conservative 23%, Reform 13%, Lib Dems
10% & Greens 5%.
So, 44% of the stronger area for Labour (Reading West) means
just 44% of 30% i.e. just 13.2% of the total vote.
For the Conservatives, 23% of the remaining 70% is just
16.1%, but that’s an absolute max as it ignores everyone else’s vote. Reform
gets just 9.1%, Lib Dems just 7.77% & Greens just 3.5%. So, any independent
getting 21% of the Vote easily wins.
Anyone who thinks about the statement above will see the
flaws in it. There are many, but as with the Labour leaflet, its is presenting
things in a way that suits the narrative of the presenter.
We all know that the polls are often wrong. The polls for
Brexit said it would not happen. No poll was indicating that an independent
would do so well in Rochdale. So why should anyone believe what is so obviously
a twist of reality?
All I will say is “Please Vote”. If you really don’t
know who to vote for, then why not a local businessman who’s independent. Let’s
not give up on democracy, but use your vote to bring it back to parliament.
The turnout for the 2019 general election was 67.3% - So
32.7% did not vote. That’s more than enough to return anyone voters choose. The
average turnout since the 2001 election (including the Brexit referendum) is
even less at 65.7%. Without Brexit, it's just 64.6%. So the reality is that anyone
can win – Including the Conservatives.