I delivered my 10,000^th leaflet across the new Reading West & Mid Berkshire constituency last weekend (7th April_. From doing this its already clear that voters must take great care with what the parties are saying. Whether its Labour delivering leaflets saying how they are the only ones that can win, even though their base out of Reading is just 30% of the new constituency, or the Lib Dems doing the opposite based on Local election results in Mid Berkshire. Voters need to treat the content in a leaflet or canvassing on the door with care. The labour leaflet even mentioned that all polling shows its neck and neck between them and the Conservatives. But based on what polling? They don’t say.

What do I base this statement on! I have had nigh on 400 conversations with Voters as I have been delivering. So that’s my polling so far. The almost universal message is one of not knowing which way to vote and being depressed with the state of Politics. Many people simply saying they are not going to vote because “it makes no difference; all politicians are the same”. Not one person said they were voting Labour! or Lib Dem or Green for that matter. It’s way too early for most people to have decided.

So, how can we trust parties that start campaigning by twisting things? As a demonstration, I’ll use the same techniques used by parties to show how an independent has just as good a chance, if not better, of being elected in the new constituency.

Let’s start with the most recent byelection result from Rochdale. Independents polled 24.5% of the vote and the largest independent got 21%. Now let’s look at Politico and the poll of polls as of 3^rd April.

It says Labour 44%, Conservative 23%, Reform 13%, Lib Dems 10% & Greens 5%.

So, 44% of the stronger area for Labour (Reading West) means just 44% of 30% i.e. just 13.2% of the total vote.

For the Conservatives, 23% of the remaining 70% is just 16.1%, but that’s an absolute max as it ignores everyone else’s vote. Reform gets just 9.1%, Lib Dems just 7.77% & Greens just 3.5%. So, any independent getting 21% of the Vote easily wins.

Anyone who thinks about the statement above will see the flaws in it. There are many, but as with the Labour leaflet, its is presenting things in a way that suits the narrative of the presenter.

We all know that the polls are often wrong. The polls for Brexit said it would not happen. No poll was indicating that an independent would do so well in Rochdale. So why should anyone believe what is so obviously a twist of reality?

All I will say is “Please Vote”. If you really don’t know who to vote for, then why not a local businessman who’s independent. Let’s not give up on democracy, but use your vote to bring it back to parliament.

The turnout for the 2019 general election was 67.3% - So 32.7% did not vote. That’s more than enough to return anyone voters choose. The average turnout since the 2001 election (including the Brexit referendum) is even less at 65.7%. Without Brexit, it's just 64.6%. So the reality is that anyone can win – Including the Conservatives.